Real Estate Briefing: Tendency Upward.

Before a flight in bad weather, the pilot will carefully analyse various weather briefs and aerodrome forecasts. Hidden in all the lingo between "vertical visibility" and "broken clouds" will be some very important words: "Tendency upward" or "Tendency downward".

There is no doubt - the recovery and re-balancing of the Tucson market is in motion:

Change from May 2007 - 2008

1) Median price is down 10% - Homes are getting cheaper.
2) Pending contracts are up 25% - So, people are buying them.
3) Inventory is down 12% - As a result fewer homes are for sale.

Now, everything is not fine and dandy, the total sales activity is still down and the time to sell a home is currently 77 days on average vs. 62 a year ago. But the key numbers are on the right track, whereas a year ago all parameters were, Tendency Downward.

The bottom has not yet been reached, and there are some serious jokers in the game including an unfolding recession and the constrained credit markets affecting Real Estate all across the country.

Tucson however - fares pretty well for being part of the sunbelt boom. Foreclosure rates, a vital measure of health in a real estate marked, - are only up 16% year over year vs. 100-300% in many CA, FL and NV markeds. Meanwhile we continue to draw snowbirds & retirees from Canada to New England, some of them originally headed for the the gulf states, but unwilling to pay exorbitant flood insurances. California is pricey at best, so the logical choice for many remains Arizona & New Mexico where low housing cost paired with abundant sunshine and recreation awaits.

BUYER:
Although the median price in the Tucson market will continue a controlled descent for another 5-10%...there are currently plenty of individual properties selling far below market value. It should no longer be a "Waiting for prices to fall game", but instead a "find the right property at a bargain price game"

SELLER:
The sea rises and sinks all boats - you may sell for less than "yesterday" but you will be a thrilled buyer for your next home with so many great deals out. The key is realistic pricing and exceptional presentation.

Your Tendency Upward analyst, Tom Nielsen