Latest sales stats from the Tucson Association of Realtors showed some good signs for the month of June: Inventory dropping, median price up over 12 month and days on the market in check. Such figures would be expected for the "hot" month of June during a normal cycle - but what makes it interesting is that comparing to the June of '06 we seem a little better off. For instance did the inventory in 06 continuously climb during spring/summer, whereas we this year have seen a solid drop in listings from 10.3K - 8.6K (APR-JUN)
Median price stands 1.77% higher than in June '06 - and days on the market currently 64. Although 64 is well above the 46 in June 06, we must look at the tendency. 06 began with 44 days on the market in January and ended with 46 in June. Same figures in 07 have shown a decline from 68-64.
So where are we at ? - possible to a slow recovery, where prices stay check once adjusted for inflated, meanwhile inventory will slowly work its way down to a balanced level (5-6K). With the slower fall season on the horizon, temporarily subduing the emerging good signs, expect 08 to be the first year since the roaring 05, where the recovery will be in full motion.
Looking to buy: Fall/winter of 2007 will be prime time.
Looking to sell: Spring/summer of 2008 will be better if you can wait.
Factors to watch: Interest rates + Tucson net immigration and local economy.
Enjoy the summer !!
Sunday, July 15, 2007
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