Market update

OK - WHATS GOING ON !

Realtors & Investors alike are eagerly waiting for the October real Estate sales stats to come out. When the September stats came out, news were good and bad.

Bad news first: Median sale price for a Tucson home fell for the first time in more than a decade over the last 12 month (sep05-sep06) by roughly 4%.

Good news: Inventory which has been climbing to record levels finally started to drop (9401, AUG to 9201, SEP)

I believe Inventory will keep dropping at a slow rate for the next 6-8 month, the same will median price - expect another 3-4% drop. From mid 07 things should be balanced out, and prices will continue flat as the slower fall/winther season sets in. By spring 08 we should once be back in appreciation mode, although at Tucson historic (and sustainable) levels: 5-7%.

As the stats come out month after month I will adjust the forecast if need be.

Buyers and Investors ! - Keep in mind that the long term forecast for Phoenix & Tucson metro ares are staggering so now is the time to go bargain hunting during this temporary housing trough.

Check out this posting from respected U of A Economist Marshall Vest:

Forecast for Arizona in 2036: A Top 5 State?
Marshall J. Vest
9/1/2006


During the next 30 years, Arizona will add another 8.5 million residents to the 6 million-plus who already call Arizona home. That will boost Arizona’s population to more than today’s Illinois, the fifth largest state. Arizona’s growth is multi-faceted and unique, comparable only to Florida and Nevada; all three are long-standing high-growth states. The challenge to plan for and accommodate the tremendous growth yet to come has never been greater. It is in this sense that Arizona likely will continue to be “overpopulated,” and its economy and infrastructure “underdeveloped.”